World Economic Forum emphasizes the risk of election interference as the UK and US head to the polls
The World Economic Forum (WEF) has identified a significant near-term threat to the global economy – a surge in artificial intelligence-fueled misinformation and disinformation that could sway pivotal upcoming elections. In a notably pessimistic evaluation, the WEF, preparing for its annual meeting in Davos next week, expressed apprehension about the potential disruption of politics due to the proliferation of false information. This, in turn, could lead to unrest, protests, and government crackdowns on dissent.
The WEF’s annual risks report, reflecting the perspectives of 1,400 experts, indicated that 30% of respondents believed there was a high risk of a global catastrophe in the next two years. Furthermore, two-thirds expressed concern about a catastrophic event within the next decade.
The World Economic Forum (WEF) highlighted that worries about the enduring cost of living crisis, coupled with the interconnected risks of disinformation and polarized societies, are the prevailing concerns for 2024.
This year, elections in countries representing 60% of global GDP, including Britain, the US, the EU, and India, are anticipated. The WEF emphasized that the connection between fabricated information and societal unrest will be a focal point during these campaigns.
Misinformation refers to inaccurate information, while disinformation involves intentionally false content, often used for spreading propaganda and instilling fear and suspicion.
In the extended 10-year forecast, experts surveyed by the WEF, which hosts its annual meeting in Davos, identified extreme weather events and climate change as the most urgent risks. Saadia Zahidi, a managing director of the WEF, remarked, “An unstable global order characterized by polarizing narratives and insecurity, along with the worsening impacts of extreme weather and economic uncertainty, is fueling the acceleration of risks, including misinformation and disinformation.”
Global leaders must unite to address immediate crises and pave the way for a more resilient, sustainable, and inclusive future.
The report, developed in collaboration with Zurich Insurance and professional services firm Marsh McLennan, assesses risks over both a two-year and a 10-year horizon. In the short term, the top five risks are identified as misinformation and disinformation, extreme weather events, societal polarization, cyber insecurity, and interstate armed conflict.
Carolina Klint, Chief Commercial Officer in Europe for Marsh McLennan, emphasized, “Breakthroughs in artificial intelligence will profoundly alter the risk landscape for organizations, with many grappling to respond to threats stemming from misinformation, disintermediation, and strategic miscalculation.”
A persistent commitment is required to establish resilience at organizational, national, and international levels. Enhanced collaboration between the public and private sectors is crucial to navigate this swiftly changing risk scenario.
Klint highlighted that AI intensifies the risk of widespread disinformation and misinformation, potentially leading to the questioning of the legitimacy of elected governments. Voters are susceptible to targeting by hostile states and domestic actors.
In the longer term, the top five risks are recognized as extreme weather events, critical changes to earth systems, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, natural resource shortages, and misinformation and disinformation.
While two-thirds of those surveyed expressed concerns about extreme weather events in 2024, there were divergent perspectives on the immediacy of these risks. According to the report, private sector respondents believed that most environmental risks would manifest over a more extended period compared to civil society or government respondents. This underscores the increasing risk of reaching a point of no return.
Zahidi emphasized, “This outlook is quite pessimistic, but it is not a definitive prediction of the future. The future is significantly influenced by our actions.”